The global expansion of the crimean conflict

Turkey deports Syrian warplane and makes clear what consequences the fight for Ukraine could have

With the escalation of the conflict between Russia and the U.S. and the EU, it is no longer just about Ukraine and Crimea or the concerns of some neighboring countries like Poland or the Baltic states. Without Russia’s cooperation, the Middle East (primarily Syria and Iran) will become a more dangerous source of conflict, and Russia is also trying to take advantage of the withdrawal of Isaf troops in Afghanistan.

And China, which is under a similar fear of encirclement as Russia, is still keeping out of it (powder keg Asia). This does not have to continue. Meanwhile, North Korea provoked again over the weekend with tests of short-range missiles and is not impressed by criticism. However, this is also to be understood as a reaction to the military exercises now taking place by Sud Korean and US forces, to which North Korea has previously threatened with the atomic bomb (North Korea wants to "Super precision drones" own). It is already clear that without Russia (and perhaps China) nothing will happen in the Security Council and thus the United Nations will be paralyzed.

In this situation, actions motivated by domestic politics, such as the shooting down of a Syrian fighter jet by the Turkish air force, could provide further fuel. According to head of government Erdogan, who is under prere since the Gezi protests and due to the corruption scandals and is acting more and more arbitrarily against opposition, criticism, media, the internet (Twitter, YouTube, Facebook) and also the legal system, two Syrian fighter jets had allegedly violated Turkish airspace, one was able to escape being fired on. Since the last shooting down of a Syrian aircraft, there has been a threat to react immediately if it happened again. Whether the planes actually penetrated Turkish airspace is still an open question. One may ame that this was not done intentionally, since Syria was not allowed to have any interest in military conflicts with Turkey. rebels have captured a border post near the town of Kassab in Lataka, Syrian troops are trying to drive out the rebel. The Syrian regime denies this. The planes had "Terror groups" fought that by shooting down the plane, Turkey was showing that it supported terrorist groups.

As rearance, the Turkish government had already persuaded Germany and other NATO partners to deploy Patriot missile defense systems on the border with Syria in order to draw NATO more quickly into a possible conflict. The Turkish government has supported the Syrian resistance from the beginning, presumably armed groups have quarters in Turkey and Islamist fighters receive money and weapons via Turkey, to the 750 so far.000 people have fled Syria, which is why Turkey had called for the establishment of a no-fly zone or humanitarian corridor.

Recently, Turkey had already threatened to intervene in Syria once before. However, this is not about the Syrian regime, but about the Islamist group ISIL, which had threatened to remove the Turkish flag from the tomb of Suleiman Shah. The tomb of the Great Father of Osman I, the founder of the Ottoman Empire, is located 25 km from the border in the Syrian province of Aleppo and, according to a 1921 treaty between France and Turkey, is an 8,000-square-meter rough Turkish enclave. The tomb is guarded by 25 Turkish soldiers, reportedly two F-16 fighter jets are always on standby to protect it.

The defense minister stressed on Saturday that the grave was Turkish land and was defended accordingly: "Turkey is a powerful country." Even the Turkic President Gul, who opposed Erdogan for censoring Twitter, declared that the tomb would be defended as any other part of Turkey: "It is Turkish land and here there is the Turkish flag."

Whoever wants to draw an extension of the conflict, in which NATO would automatically be drawn in, had an easy game here. The Turkish government itself could easily print the button or let rebels carry out an attack on the grave. Erdogan, who is desperately fighting to keep his AKP in power, and who seems to be willing to use any means to do so, is a factor of insecurity. In addition, there are close ties between the Turks and the Crimean Tatars or the Crimeans "Crimean Tatars" gives. Turkey still wants to establish itself as a mediator to secure the rights of the Crimean Tatars, but this can also change quickly.